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RE: Risk/Reward No. 12 1/2

Sent:Friday, August 06, 2010 7:56 AM

My wish came true.  Some readers told me I was crazy.  It is their belief that the preannouncement value of the company will be decreased by the amount of the dividend.   Thus, if WCRX was worth $25 before the announcement it will be worth $14.50 once it trades ex-dividend and that I paid $1.10 (the difference between the preannouncement price and my entry point) for nothing.   They may be right.   A blogger last night compared WCRX's move to the REIT conversion of WY.   I don't think that is accurate.   The WY dividend and conversion has a large stock component which has a direct dilutive effect.   The issue with WCRX,  to my thinking, is the  correlation (or not) that exists between  a company's market value and its balance sheet.  I think market value  is driven more by a company's income and cash flow than its balance sheet.  Clearly servicing the debt will diminish WCRX's income and thus its value,  and  no doubt I will not receive the total benefit of my bargain ($8.50 - $1.10= $7.40), but I do believe I will come out ahead. 

Thanks for the input which is exactly why I explain and publish each of my moves.  I have a lot of  mistakes ahead of me, although I do not believe this is one.  Game on

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