Risk/Reward Vol. 108
THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT OR TAX ADVICE. THIS IS A PERSONAL REFLECTION ON INVESTING. RELY ON NOTHING STATED HEREIN.
"It's not money that is the root of all evil--it's the lack thereof."---quote from Reverend Ike
"Carry on my wayward son/There'll be peace when you are done."--lyrics "Carry On Wayward Son" by Kansas
"School's out for summer/School's out forever/School's been blown to pieces."--lyrics "School's Out" by Alice Cooper
"Why did he desert me/In my hour of need/I am truly am indeed/Alone again naturally"--lyrics "Alone Again (Naturally)" by Gilbert O'Sullivan
If you had any doubt previously, you know now that Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB) (like his US counterpart Uncle Ben Bernanke) is from the Reverend Ike School of Economics. Talk about "avoiding evil", how about that second round of the Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) which occurred last Wednesday (and which was discussed in last week's edition). Over 800 banks took advantage of 1% three year loans to borrow 529billion Euros ($713billion) from the ECB. That makes a total LTRO disbursement of 1trillion Euros ($1.3trillion) since mid December, 2011. With this massive infusion of liquidity, there now is "no lack of money" in Europe. To put it in perspective, in 2008-2009 the infamous TARP program infused what looks now like a paltry $432billion into US banks. Whether it is fiscally sound policy in the long run or merely a means to refinance Europe with inflated currency, the LTRO has been a godsend of Eurozone stability to US investors. If you doubt this fact, hearken back just three months ago by re-reading Vol. 96 posted on December 10, 2011 (www.riskrewardblog.blogspot.com ) when the DJIA was 10% lower than where it sits today.
The ECB's handout to these 800 "wayward sons" had its intended effect--quite immediately. The very next day, many of these banks used the new money to upbid the Spanish and Italian sovereign bond auctions which concomitantly sent their 10 year bond interest rates below 5%. (Remember, as discussed in Vol. 98 which is available at www.riskrewardblog.blogspot.com, 5% is a sustainable interest rate for these two at-risk economies.) The banks' decision to "carry (the bonds) on" their books makes sense. Buy a bond yielding 5% with money costing 1%, pledge it as collateral for the loan, and book 4% as profit. This is how the LTRO brought "peace" to the Eurozone "when it was done." And this is why my positions in Eurozone financial institutions like IDG and AEG are up 30% or more in two months.
Speaking of schools, I have done well in 2012 by investing in certain SLM (Sallie Mae) securities. As many of you know, Sallie Mae or the Student Loan Market Association was founded in 1972 as a government sponsored entity (like Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae) to originate, source and collect government guaranteed student loans. This virtually risk-free business model ended in 2010 when Congress withdrew SLM's guaranteed student loan origination franchise. The investing community thought this withdrawal would eventually cause the company's demise, but it has shown remarkable resilience. It cut overhead, and drawing upon its loan underwriting expertise, it launched several privately financed programs--all the while maintaining excellent cash flow from the run-off of its loan portfolio. I like two of its exchange traded debt issues: JSM which has appreciated 14% in 2012 and still pays nearly 7% in interest and SLMAP which has gone up 12.5% and still yields 7.7%. SLM is clearly not "out forever", not even "out for summer" and certainly not "blown to pieces".
With natural gas languishing at $2.46/mmBTU in the United States even after a substantial reduction in production (remember: in 2008 before fracking began in earnest, nat gas in the US traded as high as $12/mmBTU, much of it imported from Canada), anyone advocating investing in nat gas seemingly should be "deserted" and left "alone, naturally". But with the Iranian situation causing oil to spike; with President Obama hinting that he may support conversion of over the road vehicles to nat gas; with the news that many locally oriented fleets are converting to nat gas (80% of Waste Management's new truck purchases are to run on natural gas); with a run up in the stock of Westport Innovations (WPRT), the holder of many nat gas vehicle patents; with a planned nationwide build out of service stations underway by Clean Energies Fuel (CLNE); and with the certainty that this wonderfully mild winter in the US will not repeat, it is merely a matter of time before nat gas prices rise again. When that time arrives, I plan to invest in the convertible preferred stock of Chesapeake Energy (CHKpD).
For the present, I bought Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP) on the news this week that the world's largest money manager, BlackRock (with $3.65 TRILLION under management), invested $2billion into CQP's natural gas liquification facility at Sabine Pass, LA. With the glut of domestic nat gas, Cheniere is expanding its liquid natural gas (LNG) importing facility there (which was built pre-fracking) to add LNG exporting capacity. The math is elegantly simple: buy US domestic nat gas at $2-3/mmBTU, liquify it, ship it overseas and sell it for $16mmBTU in Japan or $13mmBTU in Europe (current prices). Even though CQP spiked on the news that a financial heavyweight like BlackRock was a believer in its vision and though the facility will not be operational until 2015, I pulled the trigger. All things remaining equal, I can afford to wait for a big pop because CQP pays a 7% dividend.
Although the market slipped ever so slightly this week, one has to be impressed by its relative stability in the face of a continuum of yeah/boo world news (Yikes! Iran). I am pleased with my moves this year, but much remains to be learned. This week's lesson comes from Draghi favorite Reverend Ike:
"The best thing you can do for the poor is not to be one of them.
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