Risk/Reward Vol. 140
THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT OR TAX ADVICE. IT IS A PERSONAL REFLECTION ON INVESTING. RELY ON NOTHING STATED HEREIN.
"If they don't win it's a shame
For it's one, two, three strikes you're out/ At the old ballgame"---lyrics from "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" by Norworth/VonTilzer
"Well variety is the spice of life
That's what the judge is gonna tell my wife"---lyrics from "Variety Is The Spice of Life" by the Doors (after Jim Morrison's death)
"Swimming upstream, swimming upstream
Fightin' every inch of the way for a poor boy's dream"---lyrics from "Swimming Upstream" by Ricky Van Shelton
As I predicted in the previous edition, the stock market was on a roller coaster this week--up on good earnings reports early in the week and then tumbling on Friday with disappointments from Google, McDonald's and others. The Dow Industrials gained a meager 15 points this week.
"It's a shame", but one of my favorite sectors, agency mortgage real estate investment trusts (mReits), has experienced a great deal of volatility recently. Even stalwarts such as NLY and AGNC have been buffeted in the action. Through a bidding process, mReits purchase government guaranteed mortgages from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, profiting from the spread between the rate of return on the mortgage and the cost of shorter term borrowing. This has been very profitable for the past few years as mReit's cost of funds has dropped quicker than mortgage rates. However, three negative factors have contributed to upsetting this sector in the past two weeks. Strike One: the Federal Reserve's most recent round of quantitative easing (QE3) has introduced a new competitor into the mReit market which has driven mortgage rates/returns down: the Federal Reserve itself. That's right, the Fed is bidding on and purchasing more than $40billion of mortgages each month. Yikes! Strike Two: this unprecedented availability of lower interest rates has resulted in a wave of refinancing with higher yielding mortgages being repaid and replaced by lower yielding ones. Strike Three: these early repayments have reduced the book value of each mReit, and one should resist paying more than book value for any of these entities even though their yields are attractive above book value. The run on mReits in the past few weeks caused NLY to authorize a share buy back which has served to stabilize the price. Despite the disruption in the sector, however, mReits are not "out" of my list of favorites---they are still in my "ballgame." That said, I sold most of my mReit positions before heading to France and before the volatility began, but I will reinvest once the Fiscal Cliff is resolved.
Even though I have been taking profits and raising cash over the past few weeks in advance of the election and the Fiscal Cliff, I really like my pre-liqidation portfolio, and you can "tell my wife" that I will reconstruct it in time. "Variety" or I should say diversity being "the spice of life", my holdings were comprised in equal measure of Reits (mReits, commercial mortgage reits, conventional reits, etc. ), finance/insurance (bank preferreds, insurance preferreds, business development companies, etc. ) and oil/natural gas (major oil, small e&d companies, pipeline and storage mlp's, etc.) with lesser percentages in utilities, natural resources and health care. These sectors pay handsome dividends averaging over 7%. Noticeably absent are tech, industrials and retail which simply do not provide enough dividend income to suit my desires.
In the oil and natural gas space, I continue to love Linn Energy (LINE). This "upstream" company (upstream=exploration and development or e&d, midstream=pipelines and storage, downstream=refining and distribution) continues to do "swimmingly" well having appreciated 15% this year while still paying 7+%. What I like most is its hedging activity which guarantees a decent return for years to come. Last week, LINE, a limited partnership, issued a new security LNCO which trades as a common stock and thus is appropriate for investment by retirement vehicles. I highly recommend that you take a look at this. LINE has fulfilled this "poor boy's dreams" and LNCO can do the same for anyone's 401k, IRA or similar account.
As stated above, I am liquidating my holdings in an orderly fashion in advance of the Fiscal Cliff. This is earlier than I had planned but our trip to France provided a convenient starting point. I don't see the election providing a market stimulus no matter who wins. It is what happens in the days immediately following the election that will count. Stories out of D.C this week indicate that President Obama is not inclined to compromise on any of his proposals which means the Bush Tax Cuts will end---and that will not be good for the stock market. Stocks may become much cheaper in the weeks ahead, and I want plenty of cash available to take advantage of the dip. I don't see any scenario between now and year end in which stocks will escalate significantly. I am willing to forego one quarter's worth of dividends to avoid the pain. Let the elections take place, and let the Fiscal Cliff come or otherwise be resolved. Then and only then can we, like the Doors, "break on through to the other side."
No comments:
Post a Comment