Risk/Reward Vol. 147
THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT OR TAX ADVICE. IT IS A PERSONAL REFLECTION ON INVESTING. RELY ON NOTHING STATED HEREIN.
"Don't ask me why/No more questions
Just accept it for the way it is"---lyrics from "Words" by Pink
"He got that super bass/Boom da boom boom
Boom da boom boom bass
Yeah that's that super bass"---lyrics from "Super Bass" by Nicki Minaj
"It's a pain in my gas/It's killin' me so fast
All my hard earned money just thrown away
Blame Bin Laden or Sudan, Iraq or Iran"---lyrics from "Pain in the Gas" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
This week Mr. Market showed significant support for the President. On Wednesday, within minutes of the President's comments that the Fiscal Cliff could be resolved in one week if the Republicans accepted that the upper two tax brackets will be increased, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) went from negative to positive, ending the day up 86 points. There were "no more questions" regarding this claim. "Don't ask me why." Mr. Market "just accepted it for the way it is." Indeed, thereafter stocks moved steadily upward aided by a favorable employment report on Friday. The DJIA is now only 2.5 % below where I exited in October.
This week Goldman Sachs opined that, contrary to what others have said, the "super" cycle in "bass (base)" metals will continue. For those unfamiliar with the "supercycle", much of the three year "boom da boom" experienced by emerging markets has been driven by demand (primarily from China) for base metals (e.g. copper, zinc, iron ore) mined in emerging market countries (e.g. Chile, Brazil, Australia, etc.). With the political change in China complete and a commitment from the new regime to promote development, Goldman Sachs believes that the "boom da boom" in "bass" metals will experience a renaissance. Goldman's statement notwithstanding, one of world's major copper miners, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) took a different tack this week by making two large acquisitions (PXP and MMR) in the natural gas exploration and transportation sector. The stock market punished FCX for uncoupling from copper, but its foray into natural gas may make sense for the reason set forth below.
Mid-week, the Department of Energy (DOE) issued a report that advocates an expansion of natural gas exports. As loyal readers know, thanks to hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") and horizontal drilling, the United States has gone from being an importer of natural gas at $12/mmBTU in 2008 ("a pain in my gas") to being bloated with it. Indeed, natural gas traded below $2/mmBTU earlier this year before production was curtailed. Energy independence could be ours at last if we support natural gas usage in service vehicles and semis and if regulation doesn't "kill it so fast.". If we don't achieve energy independence, don't "Blame Bin Laden or Sudan, Iraq or Iran." Blame ourselves. Despite a surplusage of natural gas, heretofore only one company, Cheniere Energy (LNG), has been granted permission by the DOE to construct a natural gas exporting facility. This week's report should benefit other companies interested in exporting this abundant resource, most notably Dominion Resources (D).
Gauged by the market's recent move upward, I may be the last person who believes that plunging over the Fiscal Cliff is still a possibility---and/or that a plunge will result in a significant market drop. But recall, if you will, a mere 16 months ago. Mr. Market believed that the Debt Ceiling crisis would be resolved before the August 2, 2011 default date and that a debt downgrade would be avoided. It was not worth the risk to me, so on July 29, 2011 I liquidated when the DJIA was at 12,240. (See Vol 78 www.riskrewardblog.blogspot.com). Washington played brinksmanship over the succeeding few days and a week or so after my liquidation, the DJIA closed at 10,2019---a 12% drop from my exit point. Lest we forget, this is the same President and the same Congress that caused that fiasco. Consequently, I am biding my time---on the sidelines. I know what I want to buy and am eager to do so, but I am in cash until a Cliff resolution is reached.
Please, Washington, listen to Pink, and:
"Get this party started."
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