Risk/Reward Vol. 195
THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT OR TAX ADVICE. IT IS A PERSONAL REFLECTION ON INVESTING. RELY ON NOTHING STATED HEREIN.
"I'm sitting on top of the world,
Just rolling along
Just rolling along"---lyrics from "I'm Sitting On Top of the World" sung by Al Jolson
"Trickle, trickle/Splash, splash
Tell me how long/Will this rain last?"---lyrics from "Trickle, Trickle" by Manhattan Transfer
"Lightening up/While you still can
Don't even try to understand
Just find a place to make your stand
And take it easy."---lyrics from "Take It Easy" by The Eagles
WOW! Another record breaking week! Anyone invested in a stock index fund is truly "sitting on top of the world." And it all happened in the absence of any significant news. Very little economic data issued and the much anticipated Congressional testimony of Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve chair-nominee, went as expected. Each day seems to bring a new high---"Just rolling along/Just rolling along." How long will it last?
It is beyond dispute that one, perhaps THE, major driver of appreciating stock prices is QE3. In the Review and Outlook section of Friday's Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the editors predicted that the Federal Reserve under Janet Yellen's leadership would not end QE3 any time soon because Ms. Yellen believes that monetary policy can impact entire business cycles. In the words of PIMCO's Bill Gross, Ms. Yellen holds fast to the idea that supplying cheap money at the top of the financial food chain (QE3) will cause prosperity to trickle down to the middle class through full employment. Does it or does QE3's cheap debt merely finance huge stock repurchase programs which primarily serve to enrich those at the top, in a not-so virtuous circle? Don't get me wrong---we, as stockholders, have benefitted from this circle, at least so far. But as former Fed member Kevin Warsh noted in Wednesdays' WSJ, QE3 remains a giant experiment in "Trickle, trickle, splash splash." (I suggest you read this thought provoking piece which can be found here (http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304655104579165781051413674 ) According to Warsh, QE3's continued efficacy is questionable, and no one knows what will happen once the Fed stops raining easy money. Only one thing is for certain, QE3 will stop sometime---even Ms. Yellen stated so this week. I just want someone to "Tell me how long/Will this rain last."
I took advantage of the new highs and the moderation in interest rates this week to "Lighten up/While I still can" on many of my preferred stock closed end funds and my mortgage real estate investment trusts which will be adversely impacted should tapering of QE3 begin in mid December. If you have not followed my previous discourse on the relationship between QE3, interest rates on the 10 Year Treasury Bond and the performance of these sectors, then "Don't even try to understand" why I sold them. Let's just say that having collected several months of outsized dividends, I "found a place to take my stand" this week. In regard my other investments, I am holding tight and smiling like the rest of you. I have not redeployed the cash I raised, however. Instead, I'm "takin' it easy" for now.
These past few weeks have been like an Eagles concert. Every day, the stock markets "Take It To The Limit." Stock picking has become a "Life In the Fast Lane." Right or wrong, I have not chased those lofty stock index returns in recent days. I am happy with my year to date performance. After all, I am in for the "Long Run". The one thing I want to avoid at this stage is a "Heartache Tonight.".
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