Risk/Reward Vol. 199
THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT OR TAX ADVICE. IT IS A PERSONAL REFLECTION ON INVESTING. RELY ON NOTHING STATED HEREIN
"She, she ain't real/She is a stranger
Sure, she's got it all/But baby is that what you really want?
Rumor has it."---lyrics from "Rumor Has It" sung by Adele
"You wanted me so much/But I didn't get it
How could a fellow be so blind
And we began to rock steady
Steady rockin' all night long."---lyrics from "Rock Steady" sung by The Whispers
"Here I go again
I hear those trumpets blow again
All aglow again
Taking a chance on love "---lyrics from "Taking a Chance On Love" sung by Frank Sinatra
Although "She is a stranger", "She's got it all (the power that is), and "Rumor has it" that a favorite economic barometer for Federal Reserve Chair-nominee Janet Yellen (as well as outgoing Chair Bernanke) is the job opportunity number. That statistic was released on Tuesday and showed 3.93 million job opportunities, the most since May, 2008. At first blush this should be viewed as good news, but "Baby is that what you really want?" It's not what the stock market wanted as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), after gaining steam on Monday, ended the week down 265 points. Many stock traders believe that this improved job opportunities number plus the real possibility of a budget deal by Congress (one passed the House late Thursday) heightens the likelihood of QE3 tapering and by extension means higher interest rates and lower asset prices.
I suggest that Mr. Market is overreacting. Indeed, "How could a fellow be so blind?" Doesn't "he get it?" When interest rates are the concern, look to the bond market. And the bond market is telling us that tapering sometime before March 2014 is already priced-in. Indeed, despite tapering's imminence (we should get a good read on its actual timing after next week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting), the yield on the bellwether 10 Year Treasury Bond held "rock steady/Steady rockin' all night (and all week) long" below 2.9% As I wrote last week (see Vol. 198 www.riskrewardblog.blogspot.com) this suggests to me that hemorrhaging by other interest rate sensitive securities is near the end.
So, does my above-stated conclusion mean that "I hear the trumpets blow again," that "I'm all aglow again", and that I'm "willing to take a chance" again on these rate sensitive securites such as preferred stocks, real estate investment trusts, levered closed end funds, business development companies, etc. exposure to which I have pared? (See Vol. 195 www.riskrewardblog.blogspot.com ) NO, NOT YET! Although many of these are at or near their 52 week lows (e.g. O, FFC, FLC), I must resist the temptation to go bottom hunting. If I am right, there should be ample opportunity to purchase them at bargain prices (if not at their absolute low points) once better visibilty on the actual tapering timeline appears.
Next week's market again will be dominated by what is done and said at the FOMC meeting. If QE3 tapering begins or its initiation in January is foretold, I am predicting that the bond market will not experience a"Skyfall". As stated above, I believe that the bond market has already priced tapering into interest rates and that its implementation will not "Set Fire to the Rain." That said, I will continue to sit on my large cash position until more certainty is had on this front. I will then buy into my favorite, interest rate sensitive, income producing sectors and hopefully, like Adele, be "Rolling In The Deep" soon thereafter.
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