Risk/Reward Vol. 278
THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT OR TAX ADVICE. IT IS A PERSONAL REFLECTION ON INVESTING. RELY ON NOTHING STATED HEREIN.
“How can I listen to my mind
Without breaking my heart
I'm so confused
What should I do”---lyrics from “Confused” sung by Justin Timberlake
“In and out of love
Hear what I'm sayin'
In and out of love
It's the way that we're playing”---lyrics from “In and Out of Love” sung by Bon Jovi
“Arabian nights, 'neath Arabian moons
A fool off his guard
Could fall and fall hard
Out there on the dunes”---lyrics from “Arabian Nights” from “Aladdin”
Did you follow the Dow Jones Industrial Index’s mercurial, 469 point ride on Friday? Clearly, Mr. Market was “Confused” on how to interpret the disappointing jobs number reported Friday morning. Was the bad news actually bad news as indicated by the market’s drop in the morning or was it good news (at least in regard to postponing an interest rate increase) as some interpreted the afternoon rise? Saturday morning’s reportage shed little light on what to make of the data. Like Mr. Market, “How can I listen to my mind/Without breaking my heart/I’m so confused/What should I do?”
Although more dramatic, Friday’s action mirrored that which has been occurring for some time. Just look at the 300 point drop on Monday and the recovery had on Wednesday. That action caused me to sell BX, KMI and ETP per my 8% loss rule only to repurchase them one day later. “In and out of love/Hear what I’m sayin’/In and out of love/It’s the way that I’m playing.” Although still in a loss position, as of Friday’s close I am down less than 4% on each of these favorites. The transactional cost: $7 in, $7 out and forfeiture of a wash sale tax loss. Cheap insurance, in my opinion. Is this yo-yo-ing what we can expect? I am afraid so, at least until we get a clearer read on when and what the Fed will do with interest rates.
The big news of the week may have been lost in the hubbub of the jobs number. And that news is about oil. Domestically, the Keystone pipeline is dead. Moreover, the number of active US crude oil rigs fell by 26 last week and now stands at 614, the lowest number since 2010. On that news alone, the price of domestic crude rose 1.8% on Friday. Internationally, crude prices face significant upward price pressure from a variety of forces. One is the threat posed by the sudden appearance of the Russian air force in Syria with air rights granted by both Iran and Iraq. Russia, the economy of which is dependent upon oil exports and thus has been decimated by declining prices, is now within striking distance of every major oil route out of the Mideast. A second upward force is the toll that the oil price war has had on its instigator, Saudi Arabia. Earlier this year, the Saudi’s literally opened the spigot in an attempt to run US oil producers out of business by having the price of oil fall below the US’s cost of production. As evidenced by the drop in the rig count noted above, the move has been partially successful, but at a tremendous cost. In order to shoulder its expensive welfare state and to fund its various military adventures in Yemen and elsewhere, the Saudis need oil prices of $100/bbl. Thus for several months the Kingdom has had to liquidate its foreign reserves to subsidize the $50 delta between current international oil prices and this social cost. At a $10 billion per month burn rate, even the Saudi’s substantial $700 billion reserve is not inexhaustible. This is a tricky gambit they are running. “Arabian nights ‘neath Arabian moons/A fool off his guard/Could fall and fall hard/Out there on the dunes.” What does this mean to me ? I see oil prices stabilizing, even rising. I am not alone in this view. The BP that I bought last week is up 8%. The KMI that I repurchased on Wednesday is up 7%. And the ETP that I repurchased that same day is up 10%.
My five year, daily study of the stock market has led me to believe, like Justin Timberlake, that “What Goes Around/Comes Around.” The secret is being “N Sync” with Mr. Market. Anytime I am not, I “Cry Me a River.” But when I am (which I think I am in regard oil), it’s like bringing “Sexy Back.”
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