Risk/Reward Vol. 282
THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT OR TAX ADVICE. IT IS A PERSONAL REFLECTION ON INVESTING. RELY ON NOTHING STATED HEREIN.
“Drop it like it's hot
Drop it like it's hot”---lyrics from “Drop It Like It’s Hot” sung by Snoop Dawg
“Now watch me whip (Kill it!)
Now watch me nae nae (Okay!)
Now watch me whip whip
Watch me nae nae (Want me do it?)”---lyrics from “Watch Me” sung by Silento
“When you were young and your heart was an open book
You used to say live and let live
(you know you did, you know you did you know you did)
But if this ever changing world in which we're living
Makes you give in and cry
Say live and let die”---lyrics from “Live and Let Die” sung by Paul McCartney
October was a good month for Mr. Market as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 8.5%, its biggest monthly percentage gain in four years. As detailed in earlier editions, I was fortunate to catch the updraft, in particular in the oil patch. But as discussed last week, that sector had begun to cool so on Monday I “dropped it like it was hot/dropped it like it was hot.” I made a small profit on KMI and ETF which have yet to rebound from the surprise equity offering that KMI launched (see Vol. 281 www.riskrewardblog.blogspot.com ). But, I profited handsomely in selling RDS/A (Shell), VNRBP and BP. Mid and long term, I see oil as a great investment, especially Shell. It has adjusted so well to the new, lower price of oil, it is able to cover operating costs, debt service, capital expenditures and, most importantly, its nearly 9% dividend all from current revenue. But given the downward bias in oil these past two weeks and the fact that my big winners were mostly in my 401k account, I decided to take a tax free time out.
How did you interpret Wednesday's Federal Reserve post meeting press release? Are we in for a rate increase in December? Clearly, Mr. Market is without a clue as the DJIA dropped 131 points in the minutes following the press release and then rebounded 203 points to close the day in positive territory. In other words, watching the Fed caused Mr. Market initially to do the “nae, nae” then to “whip, whip” back upward. Who knows, after December’s meeting maybe he'll do the “bop, bop” or the “Superman” or even the “stanky leg.” Sometimes I wish the Fed would just remain Silento.
Lost in the wake of the Fed’s press release was news this week that China adjusted downward to 6.5% the projected rate of growth of its gross domestic profit. That news broke at the same time China announced that it was abandoning its “one child rule.” This is likely too little too late as China, like Japan before it, has become a demographic time bomb. Its working age population is shrinking---fast. Today each retired citizen is supported by 5 workers; in 2040 that ratio shrinks to 2 to 1. Fewer workers means fewer consumers; fewer consumers means less production. This is bad news for the world’s economies, especially those in the developing world. They prospered from 2009 through 2014 primarily via exporting raw materials to China. Take a look at Vol. 74 where I catalog the percentage of the world’s cement, copper, iron ore, etc. that China consumes. (www.risksrewardblog.blogspot.com ). It is astounding. This is of particular concern when one realizes that the performance of 15 of the 30 companies comprising the DJIA is dependent on China. In light of this news and the Fed’s ambiguous signals, I decided to take some profit off the table in sectors other than oil. In so doing, I followed the advice of Sir Paul : “When I was young/And my heart was an open book/I used to say live and let live/But this ever-changing world in which we're livin'/Sometimes makes me give in and cry/Say live and let die”
Maybe you’re amazed that I have chosen to bail after Mr. Market’s splendid October. “Maybe I’m Amazed” myself. Am I being wise to capture what I consider an acceptable level of profit for the year or am I merely a frightened “Band on the Run.” Who knows? But, I rarely have regretted selling and often have regretted staying put. I will take certainty over "A Little Luck” anytime. I do not see myself re-entering until after the Fed’s December meeting---unless of course I hear a “Silly Love Song” and change my mind. But do your own research and do not "Listen To What The Man Said,"
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